ESTRANGEMENT…OR WORSE?
The US policy toward China is containment. This involves economic decoupling, witness the attack on TikTok, the US ban on exports of certain technologies, controls on investments, limits on Chinese students in the US. US national security adviser Jake Sullivan has said openly that the US “wanted to hobble China’s capabilities in ‘foundational technologies’ such as artificial intelligence, biotech and clean energy.” The US wants China to be a cat, maybe a fat cat, but certainly not a tiger.
US policy also means new or intensified alliances with nations surrounding China: Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Philippines, Australia. For example, there is a new pact with Australia and the UK called AUKUS under which the US and the UK would help Australia build a fleet of 8 nuclear-powered submarines. Australia cancelled a $33 billion deal with France for 12 diesel submarines to sign on to the new arrangement.
The new animus between the US and China will cost US jobs. A current example is commercial aircraft: China just put in a huge order from Airbus (based in France) for hundreds of planes. It used to be a good customer of Boeing. On the military side the new antagonism could lead to conflict on a number of fronts. De-escalation is necessary.
Sources: The Economist, 4/1/23 and 3/18/23